Bernanke doctrine

让我们来猜猜bernanke 6月20日要干什么. 纯属娱乐.

Bernanke doctrine

Bernanke emphasized that Congress gave the Fed responsibility for preserving price stability (among other objectives), which implies avoiding deflation as well as inflation. He stated that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system. Where currency is under a monopoly of issuance, or where there is a regulated system of issuing currency through banks which are tied to a central bank, the monetary authority has the ability to alter the money supply and thus influence the interest rate (to achieve monetary policy goals). Bernanke asserted that the Fed “has sufficient policy instruments to ensure that any deflation that might occur would be both mild and brief”.[1]

To combat deflation, Bernanke provided a prescription for the Federal Reserve to prevent it. He identified seven specific measures that the Fed can use to prevent deflation.

1) Increase the money supply (M1 and M2).(偷偷发行货币?用过了)

“The US government has a technology, called a printing press, that allows it to produce as many dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.” “Under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and, hence, positive inflation.”[1]

2) Ensure liquidity makes its way into the financial system through a variety of measures. 用过了qe?

“The U.S. government is not going to print money and distribute it willy-nilly …”although there are policies that approximate this behavior.”[1]

3) Lower interest rates – all the way down to 0 per cent.(用过了,降息+扭曲操作?)

Bernanke observed that people have traditionally thought that, when the funds rate hits zero, the Federal Reserve will have run out of ammunition. However, by imposing yields paid by long-term Treasury Bonds,

“a central bank should always be able to generate inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is zero …[this] more direct method, which I personally prefer, would be for the Fed to announce ceilings for yields on all longer-maturity Treasury debt.”[1]

He noted that Fed had successfully engaged in “bond-price pegging” following the Second World War.

4) Control the yield on corporate bonds and other privately issued securities. Although the Federal Reserve can’t legally buy these securities (thereby determining the yields); it can, however, simulate the necessary authority by lending dollars to banks at a fixed term of 0 per cent, taking back from the banks corporate bonds as collateral. (美版LTRO?)这次美国的银行好像没有借贷利率飙升的问题,所以可能性比较小.

5) Depreciate the U.S. dollar. Referring to U.S Monetary Policy in the 1930s under Franklin Roosevelt, he states that:(美元快速贬值?)做的太明显了,对中国好像不好交代.

“This devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply … ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly.”[1]

6) Execute a de facto depreciation by buying foreign currencies on a massive scale. (大量购买欧债?) 既可以救欧洲于水火,又可以解决通缩,看起来好像是可能性比较大的选择.

“The Fed has the authority to buy foreign government debt … [t]his class of assets offers huge scope for Fed operations because the quantity of foreign assets eligible for purchase by the Fed is several times the stock of U.S. government debt.”[1]

7) Buy industries throughout the U.S. economy with “newly created money”. In essence, the Federal Reserve acquires equity stakes in banks and financial institutions. In this “private-asset option,” the Treasury could issue trillions in debt and the Fed would acquire it, still using newly created money.(国有化?)这个太猛了,这次完全不可能)

 

根据BB 的使用说明书,我估计美联储这次会采取第6套方案.

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为什么现在不能进行投资?

人在投资上都会犯的一个错就是拿原来的经验去判断将来的市场的形而上学的方法论. 实际上就像你不可能两次经过一个同一条河流一样,也不可能两次碰到同一个市场. 有一句名言 the only thing certain is uncertainty. 乍一看好像什么都没说,其实告诉我们一个投资方法论,就是机会总会来的.不要急于出手. 我认为现在不能进行股票,国债,房产和基金的投资. 避险资产黄金白银也要低或零杠杆. 在2011年 5月开始,QE3的决策会大大增加市场的风险,和提高利率的风险,相应的投资策略是绝对不再碰股票债券,慎重再慎重考虑买房,坚决顶住各方面压力,适度配置避险资产. 耐心的等待,做自己的事情.买了房的尽快固定利率.下半年会发生什么,我们拭目以待.

转一遍英文的文章.

阅读余下文章

该投资买房么?

From:http://dailybail.com/home/the-great-housing-bamboozle-a-look-behind-the-numbers-shows.html

 

 

Without question, the best way to make people love you politically is to throw Tootsie rolls into the crowd. In lieu of sugary treats, making an impassioned plea for education is a close second. No one wants to see their kid grow up to be a potato head, right? Today we’ll be exploring the mathematics behind the US housing market over the last thirty years to determine how smart we really want our kids to be. If you can successfully complete (or at least understand) the accompanying quiz you’ll have a more thorough understanding of economic realities than every Ivy League professor (including Nobel Laureates) active in government and mainstream media. Question #1 – Joe and Mary Twelvepack, an average American couple, buy the average American home in 1980. They pay the average American price ($76,400) and take out the average American mortgage. 29 years later, they sell the home to another couple for the 2009 average American price of $270,900. How much did they profit from the sale (assume the mortgage has been paid in full)? A: If you said $194,500 ride the pony, big guy. Author’s note: If you only aspire to be as intelligent as Uncle Sam wants you to be, STOP HERE. 【注:讽刺大部分人除了轻信政府谎言外,没什么脑子。】 Question #2 – According to the BLS, cumulative inflation from 1980 to 2009 was 160.36%. a)What is the simple inflation adjusted value of the house? b)How much of the Twelvepack’s profit was the result of inflation and c)how much was their profit after inflation? a) $198,915.04 ($76,400 * 2.6036) b) $122,515.04 ($198,915.04 – 76,400) c) $ 71,984.96 ($270,900 – $198,915.04) C’mon, chin-up buckaroo. The Twelvepacks still made money. Beating inflation is the name of the game, right? Well, there is one other factor we should probably consider: The effect interest rates had on the value of the Twelvepack’s “investment”. After all, re-fiing the house at ever lower interest rates is how they paid for Mary’s boob job, Joe’s rehab, that boat in the driveway, and the kids’ braces. God knows it wasn’t their ability to earn more. Question #3 –The average 1980 mortgage was 14.005% APR (13.74% w/ 1.8 pts.) and the couple that bought it, the Fourpacks, got 5.1015% APR (5.04% w/ 0.7 pts plus cool cash from Uncle Sam) Their 30-year fixed mortgage payments are $1471.10. a)How big of a mortgage would that payment get if interest rates were the same as in 1980? b)How much of the Twelvepack’s “profit” can be directly attributed to the change in interest rates? a) $124,206 (you’ll need Excel to calculate this if you’re not Korean)【注:美国人相信南韩的数学教育是顶呱呱,世界一流的,凭心算就可以把房屋贷款、收支出入算得清清楚楚。】 b) $146,694 ($270,900 – $124,206) Question #4 –So there you have it. 74% of the Twelvepack’s gain can be attributed to the 9% drop in interest rate. When you strip out the interest rate effect, the house underperformed inflation by more than 60% over 30 years (and that’s excluding all other costs associated with the American dream), which of course means this wasn’t actually an investment at all. How many Americans understand this? A: Not many.【注:又讽刺愚民了。】 Somehow the mathematical realities of the US housing market have completely escaped the education-loving American public as they continue to assume that the next thirty years will yield results similar to the last thirty. Utterly freaking impossible. We can’t drop mortgage interest rates 9% again (currently 4.4%), but we should expect houses to continue to underperform inflation. Despite our perception, the earth turns. That’s what makes day and night, and that’s why it seems like the sun travels through our sky. It took human beings more than 2,000 years to fully embrace that truth. Teaching your children that houses are good investments (‘cuz look how it worked out for you) and they’re lucky to have such low mortgage interest rates is about as enlightened as sacrificing them to Moloch so the Sun will continue to rise. Right now, the powers that be are bazooka-ing tootsie rolls into the crowd at an unprecedented rate. So if your child asks you, “Who’s gonna pay for all this?” maybe you should just say, “Shut-up and eat your paint chips, kid.” *** “The more deflation [sic] the elite, champagne economists throw out there to convince people “your tax dollars really can keep that anvil up in the air,” the more we’re gonna be stuck in the mud for years and years and years….” ~ Rick Santelli (more top-shelf Rick) “The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools” ~ Herbert Spencer

westpac 春节送红包

新年好回報,祝君步步高

Reward yourself this New Year with a special rate by opening an 8 month Westpac Term Deposit between 24 January and 20 February 2011.1
2011年1月24日至2月20日之間在 Westpac 開設一個提供特惠利率的8個月定期存款賬戶,您就能獲得一份豐厚的回報 1 阅读余下文章

银行业发展的历史机遇

大家都知道银行生存的关键是信用。

在通货膨胀,国家信用丧失的今天。信用问题又重新浮上水面。

如果有一种信用,超过了国家信用。能及时把握住靠上去的银行就能占领市场。现在就是这样这种历史性机遇。

JP Morgan 最近接受了黄金作为交易的担保物。 黄金的信用大有盖过国家信用之势。 如果有一家银行的信用证可以以黄金作为担保。比如0.01oz 的面额。 我们志杰移民非常乐意接受这样的信用证代替纸币作为付费凭证。看看现在谁能把握机会, JP Morgan 显然迈出了一小步。

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