Strategy (translated the essence from loujisiwei)

《战略》
荐书《战略》(上下),作者是英国的战争史学家弗里德曼。书中所写的战略,不仅仅包含战争中的战略,而是包含人类历史的一切时期、一切层次的战略。从政治的到军事的,从商业的到市场的,乃至是个人层次的战略。

Strategy

recommended book 《strategy a history》, the author is British war historical writer Lawrence Freedman. It covers not only the strategy in the war but also covers strategy of all levels, all periods in the human history from political and military field to commercial and market field, even to personal level.

什么是战略?

what is stratey

最宽泛的定义:就是调集资源和力量达成特定目标的艺术,都可以称之为战略。

The most wide definition is coordinating resources and forces to achieve particular goals’ art.

战略的对立面,一般都站着另外一个词叫战术,那么战略和战术的区别是啥? 我们一般认为,战术是指比较小的,比较具体的。战略则是指比较大,比较宽泛。但这是从大和小上去比较,并非是权威的定义,表明我们对其理解还未达究竟,仁者见仁,智者见智。就像吴伯凡老师曾经说过,战略有两个定义,第一个叫事后总结出来的好运气;第二个叫有选择的放弃。

The opposite of Strategy is Tactics.What is the difference of strategy and tactics at all? Normally we think tactics is small and specific. strategy is large and widely covering. It is comparing them in terms of size. It is not authoritative definition. It shows our understanding is not deep to the essence. The benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom. According to Mr Wu Bofan, strategy has two definitions. One is the good luck after review, the other is selective forsaking.

故事背景

Background of the story

故事的主人公梅特涅,在我们的知识结构中他前后有两次出场,第一次是中学教科书里写到1848年欧洲革命的时候他出场了,那时他的身份是奥地利的首相,著名的反动派,人民一革命,当然仓皇逃窜,从奥地利首都维也纳,一溜烟跑到了英国伦敦去避难。逃走的时候非常不光彩,男扮女装而走。在欧洲文化中,鼻子长就代表这个人爱说谎。 第二次出现在马克思的《共产党宣言》。梅特涅给人们留下的印象不太好,但是放在当时的历史背景下,再来看他的历史地位。他是欧洲历史上最最著名的一个外交家。他的一生和一个词绑在一起,这个词叫均势外交,即均衡势力外交。

The Metternich is the hero of the story. We can recalled him appears twice in our knowledge memory. His first appearance is in 1848 Great European revolution written by high school text book. His identity is premier of Austria, notorious villain.  Fleeing swiftly from Vienna to London serves him right after revolution from people.  He disguise himself as women and disgrace himself to a great extend.  In European culture, long nose means dishonesty. His second appearance is in Manifesto of communist party written by Marx. Metternich does not make good impression on people. However, in his historical situation by then, he should be remembered as a famous diplomat in European history. His is linked with a word called balance of power diplomacy which no power become so strong as to dominate the world.

英国,日不落帝国,采取的外交政策叫离岸平衡手,因为它是一个海外孤岛,主体利益是在全世界的海洋上、因此英国从来都是均势外交,也就是说不允许欧洲大陆上出现打破原来均衡势力的强权,谁崛起我打谁。所以英国400年外交史特别好记:

British, the empire on which the sun never set, adopted a diplomacy call offshore equilibrium. Because it is a overseas isolated island, it is main interests in on the ocean of the world. It always adopted balance of power diplomacy. i.e. It will not allow the dominated power appears to break the equilibrium on the European main land. It will attach whoever rises up.  So it is very easy to remember British’s diplomatic history.

 16世纪跟西班牙人死磕,无敌舰队覆灭;

 整个17、18世纪跟法国人死磕,死磕的高峰就是打拿破仑,著名的滑铁卢战役;  整个19世纪上半叶,自从打完拿破仑之后,欧洲崛起的新势力是俄国沙皇,所以

英国人跟俄国人死磕;

 19世纪下半叶,新崛起的是德国,所以调转枪头,再来对付德国人;

 第一次世界大战,德国人被打趴下,英国人说,德国人被打趴下那可不行,你法国

人不能太欺负德国人,这也是均势外交的一个表现形式。这就是为什么一战后英国

对德国采取的叫绥靖政策,跟他的均势外交的传统思想是一脉相承的。

 二战,不管英国人多么烦苏联,反对共产主义,反对斯大林,但是利益是最主要的,

必须达成均势,所以有何苏联人联合起来死磕的德国人。

梅特涅时代

梅特涅凭借在维也纳会议上的一系列表现,奠定了一百年的欧洲和平(1814-1914)。历史学界公认,这一百年和平就是归功于梅特涅主导的维也纳会议。

这一百年的和平其实挺奇怪的,此前的欧洲君主打成一团,此后的一战和二战无比惨烈,唯独中间的一百年风平浪静。当然也有一些列外,比如德国统一过程中的普法战争和普奥战争也惨烈,但毕竟持续时间不长,只有几个星期,所以影响面没有那么大。在欧洲之外也有一些战争,比如克里米亚战争,英国人和法国人联合起来磕俄国人,但毕竟在欧洲本土之外,在欧洲这一百年的和平大家享受了。因此也造成一种错觉,很多欧洲人觉得,白人之间的战争是不是就历史性结束了。所以到第一次世界大战的时候,很多人不习惯,怎么打仗死这么多人,这么惨烈呢。

维也纳会议开启了一个传统,战后大国要坐下聊一聊,安排战后的国际格局,比如一战后的巴黎和会,二战临到末了的雅尔塔会议。

维也纳会议,没有开幕式和闭幕式,其实也并没有开过会,用一位参会武官的话说就是,大会从未开始,但是舞会从未停止。期间主要就是舞会、赛马、音乐会, 前前后后九个月,扣除拿破仑复辟的三个月,还有半年时间,奥地利真是耗尽国力,搞了一次面子工程会议。

梅特涅在会议期间干嘛呢,当时人给了他一个称号,叫蝴蝶大臣。就是一只蝴蝶一样,到处飞来飞去,跟这个聊聊,跟那个聊聊,把这个带到书房叨叨几句,把那个带到书房搞一些阴谋诡计。但是梅特涅的目标非常简单,就是我奥地利作为一个弱国,我没有本事跟任何强权对抗。我们要做到就是千丝万缕的你中有我,我中有你的关系,最好我周边的这些强权都能相互制约。所以在梅特涅的斡旋之下,最后达成的欧洲格局就是全部制约在一起,大家像蜘蛛网一样,互相分不开。

维也纳会议有两个突出的原则:第一个叫正统原则,就是以后我们不认拿破仑这样的人,要认主流价值观,就是我们这些正牌君主。第二个叫补偿原则,就是说欧洲像一块蛋糕,我们都像是坐在边上的食客,多吃一口,你也别霸道,你补偿我一点,我们什么东西都做交换,不要打,不动手。就像下象棋一样,我们都是对个炮,对个马呀,至少做到表面上互不吃亏,最后谁强大,谁壮大起来,就要看谁的棋艺精湛。所以最好不要打仗。

梅特涅的这个思想可以说是和平主义的开端,当然也是适应了奥地利,布娃娃帝国主义的国力水平,所以这个时代叫梅特涅时代,这不仅仅是奥地利的梅特涅时代,也是整个欧洲的梅特涅时代,因此梅特涅也获得了另外一个称号,欧洲的马车夫。

战略和战术思维

Strategic and tactic thinkings

所谓的战术思维,虽然也是运用资源达成目标,但是这个目标非常简洁清晰,那就是要赢,最好对方全死全输,我是全活全赢。

Although the tactic thinking also coordinate the resources to achieve the goal, the goal is very specific which is to win. The best result is kill the opponent all without costing anything.

可是战略就不一样,它也是运用资源达成目标,但是这个目标很保守,它先是承认,我生活在一个均衡的格局中,然后我推动均衡向下一个均衡点转化。在转化的过程中,我希望自己在下一个均衡点当中的优势稍微大一点点,这叫战略思维。

The strategic thinking is quite different. It also coordinate resource to achieve the goal. however the goal is very conservative. It recognise we are living in balance frame, we push the balance to the next equilibrium point. During the transferring process, I hope I can get more advantage in the next equilibrium. This is called strategic thinking.

中国人爱下两种棋,一种是象棋,这就是典型的战术思维,最后的目标很简单,那就是将死对手。一个象棋高手,下棋过程中,不断地吃你的子,最终你死,我活。

Chines likes two chess most. One is called Chess, it is a typical tactic thinking. The goal is very simple, which is kill the enemy. One Chess master will kill all your chess pieces and make you die and he survive in the end.

可是围棋就不一样,从一开始就是,你一手,我一手,达成新的均衡,直到棋盘结束。下围棋需要学习定式,而定式在围棋里从来不是教你怎么赢得对方,而是达成一种叫两分的结果,就是互不吃亏。围棋就是这样,一直到最后的均衡点,不是你死我活,而是你活我也活。而且,赢就是我比你多半目,活得比你好一丢丢,所以围棋代表的是战略思维。 战略和战术之间到底是啥区别?

The Go is quite different. At the very beginning and always each one have a go, one after the other. It reaches a new equilibrium utill the end of the game. You need to learn module in Go. In go module, it will never told you how to win, but achieve a balanced result. No one is a loser. That is the beauty of Go. It is not about live or die. It is about live and live. In addition, win is I can win half glance and live better than you a little bit. So the go is a typical strategic thinking. What is the main difference of strategic and tactic thinking?

分三个层次讲战略和战术的区别:

There are three difference between strategy and tactics.

第一个层次的区别是,目标不同。战术的目标是赢,而战略的目标是下一个均衡点的达成,这中间的区别很微妙。赢这个结果,你能永远赢吗?如同饿了吃饭一样,总有吃饱的一天,那时候你会说我不吃了,也就是我不赢了,我们坐下来聊聊,这不就是下一个均衡点的达成吗?战略思维要求我们超越战术思维,从最终的均衡点往回推出我们现在应该做什么。

The first different is the purpose is different . Tactic aim is to win. but the strategic aim is to reach the next equilibrium point. There is subtle difference between them. Win is a result.But Can you always win?Just like eating when you are hungry, you will be full one day, by then you will say I can have no more. i.e. I would not win. Let us sit and talk. Is it the next equilibrium point reached. Strategic thinking asks us to go beyond the tactic thinking. we can work backward from the final equilibrium point to conclude what should we do now.

法国外交大臣塔列朗曾经讲过一句名言,你们都指责我是叛徒,但实际上在任何一种力量自暴自弃之前,我都不曾背叛他。就是说,你拿破仑始终要赢,你不肯达成任何一个点上的均衡,早晚有一天你会输,你会将整个法兰西带入万劫不复的深渊,作为法兰西的政治家,我是要对这个民族负责的,凭什么要跟你拿破仑狂奔到死,所以我只好选择一个我认为合适的点背叛你了。所以这就是战略思维,我的目标是达成一个均衡,而不是简单的赢。

France diplomat Talleyrand once said, All  you blame me to be traitor, however I never betray anyone until he betrayed himself. i.e Napoleon would always like to win and He is reluctant to reach any point of equilibrium. You cannot always win and you will take the whole France with you to the hell. As a statesman of France, I am responsible to the whole nation.Why do I have to go the hell with Napoleon together. So I have to betray you at some appropriate point. So this is strategic thinking. My goal is to achieve an equilibrium rather than simply win.

 

第二个层次的区别是,过程的特点不同。战术的过程特点就是不断累积本方力量。有一片文章很有名,劈头就问,谁是我们的朋友?谁是我们的敌人?这是革命的首要问题。朋友搞得多多的,把敌人搞得少少的,革命就赢了。这是一种典型的战术思维。

The second difference is characteristic of its process. The tactic process characteristic is to keep on accumulating power. One article is very famous. It started bluntly with a question. Who is our friend ? Who is our enemy? This is the primary question of revolution. Increase the number of friend and decrease the number of enemy is the way to revolutionary success. This is a typical tactic thinking.

可是战略思维就不一样了,不要把敌人和朋友搞得那么清楚,最好从中掌握那个精妙的均衡,这就是平衡点。比如说梅特涅讲过一句名言,他说我控制欧洲局势的心法其实就是一条,确保所有国家之间的矛盾要大于他们和奥地利之间的矛盾。 就是说没有必要敌人和朋友搞得那么清楚,彼此之间或多或少都有矛盾,而且矛盾都有化解的可能。只要确保你们之间的矛盾大于你们和我之间的矛盾,你们就会永远争取我的支持,所以我奥地利虽然国力不强,但是我就是控制着欧洲的局势,这就叫战略思维。

However strategic thinking is very different. It is not necessary to differentiate friend and enemy very clear. It is better to control the subtle equilibrium . This is the equilibrium point. Metternich once said, my secret of control the European situation is only one principle whcih is to ensure the friction between other countries is greater than the friction between them and Austria. i.e. It is necessarily to discern the friends and enemy very clear. We may all have friction between each other and those friction could be solved. So long as we ensure you friction between each other is greater than the friction between you and me, you will always try to win my support. Austria may not be a powerful country, but I just can control the situation of Europe. This is called strategic thinking.

两句外交界的名言,第一句是英国首相索尔兹伯里讲的,说英国的外交政策就是从容地顺流漂下,偶尔伸出船篙点一下,以避免触礁。后来德国的铁血宰相俾斯麦也讲过一句类似的话,说国家是航行在时间河流上的航船。言下之意就是,我当下要确保一种精妙的平衡,绝对不能向左或者向右,跟谁就是确定的敌人,或者确定的朋友。这当中是要靠政治智慧一点一点地去调整的。这是一种过程性的意识。俾斯麦还说过,政治的目的不是要从战败的对手身上榨取更多的利益,而是要考虑它在政治上的必要性。这就是战略的过程性思维。

Two famous diplomatic quotations. The first quotation is from British premier Salisbury. He said the British diplomatic policy is like sailing down the current calmly, occasionally stick up to avoid the reef. later, the iron and blood premier of German also said something similar. He said the nation is like the boat sailing on river of time. It means, I would like to ensure a current subtle equilibrium,never turn left or turn right. no certain enemy or friend. It need politic wisdom to adjust little by little. This is a processing awareness. He also said, the purpose of politics is not to extract benefit from opponent but to consider the necessity of politics. This is the characteristic processing strategic thinking.

第三个层次的区别是,实现的手法不一样。战术的实现手法很简单。就地解决当下矛盾,推动矛盾激化,最后图穷匕见,得出一个确定性的输赢。

The third difference is way of achieve it. The way to achieve tactics is simple. We just try to solve the current friction, push the conflict to be intensified, and show hand.

而战略不一样,刚才讲,它是从一个均衡向下一个均衡转化,就是说我们不解决矛盾,我们只转化矛盾。中国在经营南海时,有一句很著名的主张,叫搁置争议,共同开发。网上很多键盘侠表示不理解,主权问题怎么能搁置争议,你的就是你的,我的就是我的。另外,共同开发,岂不让菲律宾这个小国家占了中国的便宜。这明显就是缺乏战略思维。

The strategic thinking is different. Just as I explained, it is transferring from one equilibrium to next equilibrium. i.e. we would not solve problem, we just transfer the problem into another form. When China is exploiting the South China Sea, one of the famous proposition is to put aside dispute and develop together. The keyboard warrior does not understand how can we put aside the sovereignty issue. Yours is just yours. Mine is just mine. Besides, developing together. Wouldn’t it be allowing this small Philippine to take China’s advantage. This is a typical lacking of strategic thinking.

搁置争议,这是原来的一个均衡格局。如果在主权这个矛盾下和菲律宾这样的国家去谈什么国际法、海洋法,没准儿还会把美国这样的国家招进这个格局中来,这个谈法,我们是会吃亏的,所以搁置它。我们推动这个均衡向下一个均衡转化,转化矛盾到我们共同开发。开发是非常不容易的,这是在比拼国力,有的开发你也得会呀,例如现在中国在南海,填了很多岛礁,变成巨大的岛,这是不沉的航空母舰。这都是在共同开发的大主题下进行的,我共同开发了,所以导致我们的优势扩大。菲律宾也填一个试试看,他没练过这个活,也没这个本事。

Put aside dispute, this is the original equilibrium. If we discuss the international law, marine law with Philippine under the sovereignty issue, it may get country like America involved. We will be in disadvantaged situation. So we put it aside. We push this equilibrium to next equilibrium point. We transfer the conflict to developing together. It is not an easy job to develop. It is competing nation power.  The opportunity to explore does not mean the capacity to explore. e.g. in South China Sea, we reclaim a lot of reef and turn them into big island. This is unsinkable aircraft carrier. It is doing all under the joint developing theme.We developed together, so it will lead my advantage become greater. Philippine can also try to fill one. It does not have the ability due to lack of experience.

矛盾转化,转化到对我有利的主场上来。美国人总不能来共同开发吧,他根本不是南海周边国家,所以骂中国外交部的人是不懂得什么叫战略的人。

Conflict conversion, convert it into advantageous home field. America cannot quite get involved in joint exploration. It is not a country around south sea. So anyone who criticise ministry of foreign affairs is idiot who does not understand strategy.

战略思维不仅仅对国家重要,对于个人也非常重要。李笑来说,通往财富自由之路,很多人以为是钱铺就的,其实并不是。如果你不能打破你当下生活的怪圈,也就是说,从当下的均衡向下一个均衡转化的话,给你更多的钱也没有用,你也实现不了财富自由。

Strategic think is not only important to the country, but also very important to the individual. Li xiaolai once said. the way to the fortune is thought to be paved by money. Actually it is not. if you cannot break current cycle of your life, i.e., covert current equilibrium into next equilibrium. More money cannot really help. You cannot achieve fortune freedom either.

什么是人生战略?很多人以为,挣很多钱,就变好了,就实现财富自由了。请注意这是一种战术思维。你永远想靠积聚一种力量来解脱自己的人生,可能此路不通。那通的路是什么呢?还是上面讲的,从一个均衡,你努力推动它向下一个均衡转化,你摆脱了当下的怪圈,财富、自由、力量,所有你追逐的东西才能对你有用,这就叫人生的战略。

what is life strategy? may people think, Earning lots of money will turn the situation better and achieve the finance freedom. Pls be noted, this is a tactic thinking. It maybe impossible to liberate your life by accumulating a sort of power. Then what is the way? As I explained above,from one equilibrium to another equilibrium, you endeavour to push it. Only when you get rid of current  cycle, fortune , freedom and power, all you chased things, would be useful for you. This is the strategy of life.

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关于 李博
李博,移民代理,管理学学士,移民法硕士。2003年留学来澳,曾在悉尼大学,国立大学学习法律课程并获得移民代理注册。帮助众多客户处理留学,移民过程中的签证相关问题。善于解决各类移民法律疑难问题。

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