第389期|房间里的大象
The elephant in the room

话说上世纪80年代,美国曾经有一家非常厉害的公司,叫王安电脑,创始人王安是华裔美国人。

Once upon 1980s, there is a very powerful company called Wang An computer. The founder Wang An is Chinese American.

王安电脑厉害到什么程度呢?比尔·盖茨曾说:“如果王安能完成第二次战略转折,世界上可能不会有微软,我也不会成为科技偶像……我可能就在某个地方做教师,或是一位律师。”

How powerful is Wang An computer? Bill Gaze once side :” if Wang AN could complete the second strategic change, I would not become a technology idol…. I might stay somewhere to be a teacher or a lawyer.

但是,这么牛的一家公司,1992年却破产了,以至于今天都很少有人知道它。

however, such a powerful company, ended in bankrupt in 1992, so that very few people ever heard about it.

那为啥它失败了呢?原因有很多,其中很重要的一个原因是,王安把公司交给了他的儿子王列管理。在王列时代,公司出现了一系列重大的决策失误。但是王安说:他是我的儿子,我信任他。

So How does it fail? There are a lot of causes. One of very important causes is Wang An handed his company to his son Mr Wang lie to manage. In wang lie’s time, there are a lot big decision misplay. However, Wang An said : “He is my son, I trust him.”

企业决策失误很正常,但奇怪的是,这些错误命令都被忠实地执行了。在当年的IT行业,王安就是一个神话,谁敢怀疑他的判断?所以公司上下明知前面有地雷,仍然是并着肩地往前冲啊。

就这样,一家伟大的公司最终倒闭。

这样的故事,在创业界特别多。这些悲剧都有一个共通之处:公司往往不是被突发、意外的事件打垮,相反,其中的人早就知道有危险,可是因为大家都不说话,最终导致公司陷入困境。

这个状态,就是英语中的一句俗语,“房间里的大象”(The elephant in the room)。意思是说,房间里分明站着一头大象,大家都看见了,可是人人都沉默,好像它不存在,直到惨祸发生。

“房间里的大象”这个概念现在用的很多,就是指那些触目惊心地存在,却被明目张胆地忽略、甚至否定的事实或者感受。还有一个定义,更加准确和传神:房间里的大象,就是那些“我们知道,但是我们清楚地知道自己不该知道”的事。

比如吸烟,大家都知道有害健康。可说实话,如果你在抽烟,别人劝你说“这对身体不好”,你会搭理吗?如果你不吸烟,看见别人在抽烟,你会劝他“别抽了,注意身体”吗?大概没人这么不知趣吧,所以中国男性吸烟率高达52.1%。

你看,“房间里的大象”明明就在,但是没人说它在。

这个词,和西方文化中的另一个词,可以相对应地理解,“皇帝的新装”,是明明没看到,但是大家都假装看到。“房间里的大象”正好反过来,明明看到了,但是大家都假装没看到。

那问题是,为什么会出现这个现象?

有好几个解释的角度。其中一个解释,是所谓“社会性误会”。啥意思呢?

误会和偏见,本来是不好的东西。但是有些误会,是社会需要我们有的,我们还能从中获利,甚至依靠它生存,这就叫社会性误会。

比如,为了避免尴尬。就像“性”的话题,性本来大家与生俱来,可是如果在公开场合谈论,会让大家尴尬。所以,“性”这头大象就站在房间里,在人类生活中那么重要,我们却很少公开谈论它。

再比如,为了避免痛苦。许多当年从纳粹集中营里活下来的犹太人,他们普遍不愿谈起那段经历,因为曾经尊严扫地,每次回忆都相当于又被羞辱一次。而加害者们,也不愿旧事重提,因为这要经历道德煎熬。你看,这是不是也是一头房间里的大象?

还有,为了减少孤独感,这也是一种社会性误会。人在社会中经常会产生孤独感,但是人类恐惧孤独啊,所以我们总是不自觉地在想,别人会接受什么观点,我们来迎合一下。很多房间里的大象,就是这么生出来的。

对这个现象,传播学上有一个解释的角度,叫“沉默的螺旋”。

简单解释一下。如果出现了一个有争议的话题,每个人都会先去感知一下身边意见的气候。如果自己的意见属于多数派,那就放胆地说吧,越说声音越大。

而如果觉得意见的气候对自己不利,自己的观点是少数派,那很多人就会保持沉默,这一派意见的声音就越来越小。这两个过程叠加在一起,是震荡式放大,螺旋式上升,这就叫“沉默的螺旋”。

那些没有被表达出来的意见,声音越来越小,就变成了我们今天说的“房间里的大象”。

从整个社会来说,这个现象的源头是人性,无可避免。但是如果在一家公司里面,任由“房间里的大象”存在,这就很可怕了。

一般理解,企业的老板,设置各种各样的机构,任命各种各样的干部,本质上就是在搜集决策信息。所以按说,企业的老板是最了解信息的人。

但实际情况正好相反,因为“房间里的大象”存在,企业老板恰恰可能是对最关键的事实一无所知的人。所以,比尔·盖茨有一句话,他重新定义了一下什么是CEO。他说,“所谓CEO,就是公司里最后知道公司要破产的那个人。”

那在企业组织里面,怎么才能赶走“房间里的大象”呢?很难。但是行为经济学还是提供了一个线索。

有一个很著名的实验:在一个玻璃罐中放满糖果,然后请一群人来猜,这里面有多少颗糖。那你想,每个人猜的肯定差异很大,有的猜200,有的猜1000。但奇怪的是,只要把他们猜的答案一平均,居然和实际的数字相差不多。

比如,2007年在哥伦比亚商学院就做了一次这样的实验。糖的实际数目是1116颗,73个学生参加实验,平均数为1115颗,只差一颗。所以你看,人群中涌出的群体智慧远远超过了个人智慧。

但是请注意,这个试验有一个重要的前提,就是参与实验者彼此之间必须互相独立,在给出自己的答案前不能互相沟通。保持群体中每一个个体的独立性,是群体智慧发挥作用的重要前提。

当然也有人做过相反的实验,就是取消独立性,允许参加实验的人在给出自己的答案之前讨论一下。结果怎么着?“群体智慧”的光环消失了,正确率大幅降低。

原因是啥?根据我们前面讲的“沉默的螺旋”理论,一旦人群内允许相互交流,那就一定会有“意见领袖”冒出来。这些人推理能力强,口才好,有威信,他斩钉截铁说出来一个结论,其他人就只好跟上。

我们前面讲的“沉默的螺旋”就立即开始起作用,大家的判断迅速向这些意见领袖的判断集中,群体智慧也就消失了。

受这个实验启发,要想让“房间里的大象”显形,就必须抑制那些意见领袖发挥作用。

吴伯凡老师在「得到」的订阅专栏《伯凡·日知录》里,就提到过这样一个理论。一家公司的基因,最重要的是“信息传递方式”。那些小公司,为什么气氛好,效率高?

往往就是因为人少,信息传递机制非常地健康,是多信道、双向传递的,速度还非常快。但随着公司逐渐成长,渐渐变大,开始出现部门、层级。表面上这是好事,因为设置这些机构和层级,本身是为了解决效率问题的。

但是有一个负面的因素在暗暗生长,就是信息传递机制会逐渐向速度缓慢、单向、自上而下的方向发展。那些部门经理,关键的信息节点,就是在扮演“意见领袖”的作用,那组织内就会出现严重的消音机制。

最终的结果,就是最应该掌握全面信息的关键决策人,恰恰不掌握关键信息,房间里出现了一头或者很多头大象。

所以你看,为什么现代企业管理讲究要层级扁平?为什么现在企业招人,要讲究自我激励、自我驱动?为什么大企业要拼命地搞中层干部轮岗?

从今天话题的角度来看,它们某种意义上目的就是,抑制那些组织内的意见领袖、超级节点的作用,让信息交互充分地流动起来,让房间里的大象现出原形。

好,这个话题我们就聊到这里,明天见。

划重点
一家公司的基因,最重要的是“信息传递方式”。小公司效率高,往往是信息传递机制非常健康、快速。
但随着公司成长,出现部门、层级,本身是为了解决效率问题,却容易让信息传递变得缓慢。
最终的结果,就是最应该掌握信息的关键决策人,恰恰不掌握关键信息,出现了“房间里的大象”。

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当前移民形势解读

Strategy (translated the essence from loujisiwei)

《战略》
荐书《战略》(上下),作者是英国的战争史学家弗里德曼。书中所写的战略,不仅仅包含战争中的战略,而是包含人类历史的一切时期、一切层次的战略。从政治的到军事的,从商业的到市场的,乃至是个人层次的战略。

Strategy

recommended book 《strategy a history》, the author is British war historical writer Lawrence Freedman. It covers not only the strategy in the war but also covers strategy of all levels, all periods in the human history from political and military field to commercial and market field, even to personal level.

什么是战略?

what is stratey

最宽泛的定义:就是调集资源和力量达成特定目标的艺术,都可以称之为战略。

The most wide definition is coordinating resources and forces to achieve particular goals’ art.

战略的对立面,一般都站着另外一个词叫战术,那么战略和战术的区别是啥? 我们一般认为,战术是指比较小的,比较具体的。战略则是指比较大,比较宽泛。但这是从大和小上去比较,并非是权威的定义,表明我们对其理解还未达究竟,仁者见仁,智者见智。就像吴伯凡老师曾经说过,战略有两个定义,第一个叫事后总结出来的好运气;第二个叫有选择的放弃。

The opposite of Strategy is Tactics.What is the difference of strategy and tactics at all? Normally we think tactics is small and specific. strategy is large and widely covering. It is comparing them in terms of size. It is not authoritative definition. It shows our understanding is not deep to the essence. The benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom. According to Mr Wu Bofan, strategy has two definitions. One is the good luck after review, the other is selective forsaking.

故事背景

Background of the story

故事的主人公梅特涅,在我们的知识结构中他前后有两次出场,第一次是中学教科书里写到1848年欧洲革命的时候他出场了,那时他的身份是奥地利的首相,著名的反动派,人民一革命,当然仓皇逃窜,从奥地利首都维也纳,一溜烟跑到了英国伦敦去避难。逃走的时候非常不光彩,男扮女装而走。在欧洲文化中,鼻子长就代表这个人爱说谎。 第二次出现在马克思的《共产党宣言》。梅特涅给人们留下的印象不太好,但是放在当时的历史背景下,再来看他的历史地位。他是欧洲历史上最最著名的一个外交家。他的一生和一个词绑在一起,这个词叫均势外交,即均衡势力外交。

The Metternich is the hero of the story. We can recalled him appears twice in our knowledge memory. His first appearance is in 1848 Great European revolution written by high school text book. His identity is premier of Austria, notorious villain.  Fleeing swiftly from Vienna to London serves him right after revolution from people.  He disguise himself as women and disgrace himself to a great extend.  In European culture, long nose means dishonesty. His second appearance is in Manifesto of communist party written by Marx. Metternich does not make good impression on people. However, in his historical situation by then, he should be remembered as a famous diplomat in European history. His is linked with a word called balance of power diplomacy which no power become so strong as to dominate the world.

英国,日不落帝国,采取的外交政策叫离岸平衡手,因为它是一个海外孤岛,主体利益是在全世界的海洋上、因此英国从来都是均势外交,也就是说不允许欧洲大陆上出现打破原来均衡势力的强权,谁崛起我打谁。所以英国400年外交史特别好记:

British, the empire on which the sun never set, adopted a diplomacy call offshore equilibrium. Because it is a overseas isolated island, it is main interests in on the ocean of the world. It always adopted balance of power diplomacy. i.e. It will not allow the dominated power appears to break the equilibrium on the European main land. It will attach whoever rises up.  So it is very easy to remember British’s diplomatic history.

 16世纪跟西班牙人死磕,无敌舰队覆灭;

 整个17、18世纪跟法国人死磕,死磕的高峰就是打拿破仑,著名的滑铁卢战役;  整个19世纪上半叶,自从打完拿破仑之后,欧洲崛起的新势力是俄国沙皇,所以

英国人跟俄国人死磕;

 19世纪下半叶,新崛起的是德国,所以调转枪头,再来对付德国人;

 第一次世界大战,德国人被打趴下,英国人说,德国人被打趴下那可不行,你法国

人不能太欺负德国人,这也是均势外交的一个表现形式。这就是为什么一战后英国

对德国采取的叫绥靖政策,跟他的均势外交的传统思想是一脉相承的。

 二战,不管英国人多么烦苏联,反对共产主义,反对斯大林,但是利益是最主要的,

必须达成均势,所以有何苏联人联合起来死磕的德国人。

梅特涅时代

梅特涅凭借在维也纳会议上的一系列表现,奠定了一百年的欧洲和平(1814-1914)。历史学界公认,这一百年和平就是归功于梅特涅主导的维也纳会议。

这一百年的和平其实挺奇怪的,此前的欧洲君主打成一团,此后的一战和二战无比惨烈,唯独中间的一百年风平浪静。当然也有一些列外,比如德国统一过程中的普法战争和普奥战争也惨烈,但毕竟持续时间不长,只有几个星期,所以影响面没有那么大。在欧洲之外也有一些战争,比如克里米亚战争,英国人和法国人联合起来磕俄国人,但毕竟在欧洲本土之外,在欧洲这一百年的和平大家享受了。因此也造成一种错觉,很多欧洲人觉得,白人之间的战争是不是就历史性结束了。所以到第一次世界大战的时候,很多人不习惯,怎么打仗死这么多人,这么惨烈呢。

维也纳会议开启了一个传统,战后大国要坐下聊一聊,安排战后的国际格局,比如一战后的巴黎和会,二战临到末了的雅尔塔会议。

维也纳会议,没有开幕式和闭幕式,其实也并没有开过会,用一位参会武官的话说就是,大会从未开始,但是舞会从未停止。期间主要就是舞会、赛马、音乐会, 前前后后九个月,扣除拿破仑复辟的三个月,还有半年时间,奥地利真是耗尽国力,搞了一次面子工程会议。

梅特涅在会议期间干嘛呢,当时人给了他一个称号,叫蝴蝶大臣。就是一只蝴蝶一样,到处飞来飞去,跟这个聊聊,跟那个聊聊,把这个带到书房叨叨几句,把那个带到书房搞一些阴谋诡计。但是梅特涅的目标非常简单,就是我奥地利作为一个弱国,我没有本事跟任何强权对抗。我们要做到就是千丝万缕的你中有我,我中有你的关系,最好我周边的这些强权都能相互制约。所以在梅特涅的斡旋之下,最后达成的欧洲格局就是全部制约在一起,大家像蜘蛛网一样,互相分不开。

维也纳会议有两个突出的原则:第一个叫正统原则,就是以后我们不认拿破仑这样的人,要认主流价值观,就是我们这些正牌君主。第二个叫补偿原则,就是说欧洲像一块蛋糕,我们都像是坐在边上的食客,多吃一口,你也别霸道,你补偿我一点,我们什么东西都做交换,不要打,不动手。就像下象棋一样,我们都是对个炮,对个马呀,至少做到表面上互不吃亏,最后谁强大,谁壮大起来,就要看谁的棋艺精湛。所以最好不要打仗。

梅特涅的这个思想可以说是和平主义的开端,当然也是适应了奥地利,布娃娃帝国主义的国力水平,所以这个时代叫梅特涅时代,这不仅仅是奥地利的梅特涅时代,也是整个欧洲的梅特涅时代,因此梅特涅也获得了另外一个称号,欧洲的马车夫。

战略和战术思维

Strategic and tactic thinkings

所谓的战术思维,虽然也是运用资源达成目标,但是这个目标非常简洁清晰,那就是要赢,最好对方全死全输,我是全活全赢。

Although the tactic thinking also coordinate the resources to achieve the goal, the goal is very specific which is to win. The best result is kill the opponent all without costing anything.

可是战略就不一样,它也是运用资源达成目标,但是这个目标很保守,它先是承认,我生活在一个均衡的格局中,然后我推动均衡向下一个均衡点转化。在转化的过程中,我希望自己在下一个均衡点当中的优势稍微大一点点,这叫战略思维。

The strategic thinking is quite different. It also coordinate resource to achieve the goal. however the goal is very conservative. It recognise we are living in balance frame, we push the balance to the next equilibrium point. During the transferring process, I hope I can get more advantage in the next equilibrium. This is called strategic thinking.

中国人爱下两种棋,一种是象棋,这就是典型的战术思维,最后的目标很简单,那就是将死对手。一个象棋高手,下棋过程中,不断地吃你的子,最终你死,我活。

Chines likes two chess most. One is called Chess, it is a typical tactic thinking. The goal is very simple, which is kill the enemy. One Chess master will kill all your chess pieces and make you die and he survive in the end.

可是围棋就不一样,从一开始就是,你一手,我一手,达成新的均衡,直到棋盘结束。下围棋需要学习定式,而定式在围棋里从来不是教你怎么赢得对方,而是达成一种叫两分的结果,就是互不吃亏。围棋就是这样,一直到最后的均衡点,不是你死我活,而是你活我也活。而且,赢就是我比你多半目,活得比你好一丢丢,所以围棋代表的是战略思维。 战略和战术之间到底是啥区别?

The Go is quite different. At the very beginning and always each one have a go, one after the other. It reaches a new equilibrium utill the end of the game. You need to learn module in Go. In go module, it will never told you how to win, but achieve a balanced result. No one is a loser. That is the beauty of Go. It is not about live or die. It is about live and live. In addition, win is I can win half glance and live better than you a little bit. So the go is a typical strategic thinking. What is the main difference of strategic and tactic thinking?

分三个层次讲战略和战术的区别:

There are three difference between strategy and tactics.

第一个层次的区别是,目标不同。战术的目标是赢,而战略的目标是下一个均衡点的达成,这中间的区别很微妙。赢这个结果,你能永远赢吗?如同饿了吃饭一样,总有吃饱的一天,那时候你会说我不吃了,也就是我不赢了,我们坐下来聊聊,这不就是下一个均衡点的达成吗?战略思维要求我们超越战术思维,从最终的均衡点往回推出我们现在应该做什么。

The first different is the purpose is different . Tactic aim is to win. but the strategic aim is to reach the next equilibrium point. There is subtle difference between them. Win is a result.But Can you always win?Just like eating when you are hungry, you will be full one day, by then you will say I can have no more. i.e. I would not win. Let us sit and talk. Is it the next equilibrium point reached. Strategic thinking asks us to go beyond the tactic thinking. we can work backward from the final equilibrium point to conclude what should we do now.

法国外交大臣塔列朗曾经讲过一句名言,你们都指责我是叛徒,但实际上在任何一种力量自暴自弃之前,我都不曾背叛他。就是说,你拿破仑始终要赢,你不肯达成任何一个点上的均衡,早晚有一天你会输,你会将整个法兰西带入万劫不复的深渊,作为法兰西的政治家,我是要对这个民族负责的,凭什么要跟你拿破仑狂奔到死,所以我只好选择一个我认为合适的点背叛你了。所以这就是战略思维,我的目标是达成一个均衡,而不是简单的赢。

France diplomat Talleyrand once said, All  you blame me to be traitor, however I never betray anyone until he betrayed himself. i.e Napoleon would always like to win and He is reluctant to reach any point of equilibrium. You cannot always win and you will take the whole France with you to the hell. As a statesman of France, I am responsible to the whole nation.Why do I have to go the hell with Napoleon together. So I have to betray you at some appropriate point. So this is strategic thinking. My goal is to achieve an equilibrium rather than simply win.

 

第二个层次的区别是,过程的特点不同。战术的过程特点就是不断累积本方力量。有一片文章很有名,劈头就问,谁是我们的朋友?谁是我们的敌人?这是革命的首要问题。朋友搞得多多的,把敌人搞得少少的,革命就赢了。这是一种典型的战术思维。

The second difference is characteristic of its process. The tactic process characteristic is to keep on accumulating power. One article is very famous. It started bluntly with a question. Who is our friend ? Who is our enemy? This is the primary question of revolution. Increase the number of friend and decrease the number of enemy is the way to revolutionary success. This is a typical tactic thinking.

可是战略思维就不一样了,不要把敌人和朋友搞得那么清楚,最好从中掌握那个精妙的均衡,这就是平衡点。比如说梅特涅讲过一句名言,他说我控制欧洲局势的心法其实就是一条,确保所有国家之间的矛盾要大于他们和奥地利之间的矛盾。 就是说没有必要敌人和朋友搞得那么清楚,彼此之间或多或少都有矛盾,而且矛盾都有化解的可能。只要确保你们之间的矛盾大于你们和我之间的矛盾,你们就会永远争取我的支持,所以我奥地利虽然国力不强,但是我就是控制着欧洲的局势,这就叫战略思维。

However strategic thinking is very different. It is not necessary to differentiate friend and enemy very clear. It is better to control the subtle equilibrium . This is the equilibrium point. Metternich once said, my secret of control the European situation is only one principle whcih is to ensure the friction between other countries is greater than the friction between them and Austria. i.e. It is necessarily to discern the friends and enemy very clear. We may all have friction between each other and those friction could be solved. So long as we ensure you friction between each other is greater than the friction between you and me, you will always try to win my support. Austria may not be a powerful country, but I just can control the situation of Europe. This is called strategic thinking.

两句外交界的名言,第一句是英国首相索尔兹伯里讲的,说英国的外交政策就是从容地顺流漂下,偶尔伸出船篙点一下,以避免触礁。后来德国的铁血宰相俾斯麦也讲过一句类似的话,说国家是航行在时间河流上的航船。言下之意就是,我当下要确保一种精妙的平衡,绝对不能向左或者向右,跟谁就是确定的敌人,或者确定的朋友。这当中是要靠政治智慧一点一点地去调整的。这是一种过程性的意识。俾斯麦还说过,政治的目的不是要从战败的对手身上榨取更多的利益,而是要考虑它在政治上的必要性。这就是战略的过程性思维。

Two famous diplomatic quotations. The first quotation is from British premier Salisbury. He said the British diplomatic policy is like sailing down the current calmly, occasionally stick up to avoid the reef. later, the iron and blood premier of German also said something similar. He said the nation is like the boat sailing on river of time. It means, I would like to ensure a current subtle equilibrium,never turn left or turn right. no certain enemy or friend. It need politic wisdom to adjust little by little. This is a processing awareness. He also said, the purpose of politics is not to extract benefit from opponent but to consider the necessity of politics. This is the characteristic processing strategic thinking.

第三个层次的区别是,实现的手法不一样。战术的实现手法很简单。就地解决当下矛盾,推动矛盾激化,最后图穷匕见,得出一个确定性的输赢。

The third difference is way of achieve it. The way to achieve tactics is simple. We just try to solve the current friction, push the conflict to be intensified, and show hand.

而战略不一样,刚才讲,它是从一个均衡向下一个均衡转化,就是说我们不解决矛盾,我们只转化矛盾。中国在经营南海时,有一句很著名的主张,叫搁置争议,共同开发。网上很多键盘侠表示不理解,主权问题怎么能搁置争议,你的就是你的,我的就是我的。另外,共同开发,岂不让菲律宾这个小国家占了中国的便宜。这明显就是缺乏战略思维。

The strategic thinking is different. Just as I explained, it is transferring from one equilibrium to next equilibrium. i.e. we would not solve problem, we just transfer the problem into another form. When China is exploiting the South China Sea, one of the famous proposition is to put aside dispute and develop together. The keyboard warrior does not understand how can we put aside the sovereignty issue. Yours is just yours. Mine is just mine. Besides, developing together. Wouldn’t it be allowing this small Philippine to take China’s advantage. This is a typical lacking of strategic thinking.

搁置争议,这是原来的一个均衡格局。如果在主权这个矛盾下和菲律宾这样的国家去谈什么国际法、海洋法,没准儿还会把美国这样的国家招进这个格局中来,这个谈法,我们是会吃亏的,所以搁置它。我们推动这个均衡向下一个均衡转化,转化矛盾到我们共同开发。开发是非常不容易的,这是在比拼国力,有的开发你也得会呀,例如现在中国在南海,填了很多岛礁,变成巨大的岛,这是不沉的航空母舰。这都是在共同开发的大主题下进行的,我共同开发了,所以导致我们的优势扩大。菲律宾也填一个试试看,他没练过这个活,也没这个本事。

Put aside dispute, this is the original equilibrium. If we discuss the international law, marine law with Philippine under the sovereignty issue, it may get country like America involved. We will be in disadvantaged situation. So we put it aside. We push this equilibrium to next equilibrium point. We transfer the conflict to developing together. It is not an easy job to develop. It is competing nation power.  The opportunity to explore does not mean the capacity to explore. e.g. in South China Sea, we reclaim a lot of reef and turn them into big island. This is unsinkable aircraft carrier. It is doing all under the joint developing theme.We developed together, so it will lead my advantage become greater. Philippine can also try to fill one. It does not have the ability due to lack of experience.

矛盾转化,转化到对我有利的主场上来。美国人总不能来共同开发吧,他根本不是南海周边国家,所以骂中国外交部的人是不懂得什么叫战略的人。

Conflict conversion, convert it into advantageous home field. America cannot quite get involved in joint exploration. It is not a country around south sea. So anyone who criticise ministry of foreign affairs is idiot who does not understand strategy.

战略思维不仅仅对国家重要,对于个人也非常重要。李笑来说,通往财富自由之路,很多人以为是钱铺就的,其实并不是。如果你不能打破你当下生活的怪圈,也就是说,从当下的均衡向下一个均衡转化的话,给你更多的钱也没有用,你也实现不了财富自由。

Strategic think is not only important to the country, but also very important to the individual. Li xiaolai once said. the way to the fortune is thought to be paved by money. Actually it is not. if you cannot break current cycle of your life, i.e., covert current equilibrium into next equilibrium. More money cannot really help. You cannot achieve fortune freedom either.

什么是人生战略?很多人以为,挣很多钱,就变好了,就实现财富自由了。请注意这是一种战术思维。你永远想靠积聚一种力量来解脱自己的人生,可能此路不通。那通的路是什么呢?还是上面讲的,从一个均衡,你努力推动它向下一个均衡转化,你摆脱了当下的怪圈,财富、自由、力量,所有你追逐的东西才能对你有用,这就叫人生的战略。

what is life strategy? may people think, Earning lots of money will turn the situation better and achieve the finance freedom. Pls be noted, this is a tactic thinking. It maybe impossible to liberate your life by accumulating a sort of power. Then what is the way? As I explained above,from one equilibrium to another equilibrium, you endeavour to push it. Only when you get rid of current  cycle, fortune , freedom and power, all you chased things, would be useful for you. This is the strategy of life.

how to become an expert (translated from luojisiwei)

1 you get what you sow

Diligence is the path to the mountain of knowledge, hardworking is the boat in the endless sea of learning. When we were young, the sign of “study hard and make progress everyday” is posted at the rear of classroom. This slogan was used to inspire the students to study hard and to become a pro.  All talk without action cannot help you become an expert.

There is a best seller book called “outliers the story of success”. In that book, it introduced so called “ten thousand hours theory”. After all, you need to spend time and stick it to a level of self abused,in order to be successful.

2 deliberate practice

Diligence is not wrong, but the blind diligence is. Study hard and practice diligently may not necessarily get what you want, what you really need is deliberate practice. The success in any sport is not due to the athlete’s personal physical condition, but largely because a better training method is used.  With the advanced training method and deliberate practice, the good result can be expected to come.

Deliberate practice is not blind practice which is practising only the basic. Blind practice will lead you nowhere. The Essence of human civilisation, all knowledge system has its own structure. The ancestor’s experience can be sealed into concepts and the descendants can use it conveniently without second thought. i.e. the knowledge that the ancestor discovered could be abstracted into a concept, we can always take and use it easily. By succeeding the ancestor’s experience and method, keep on practise, improve the method, and deliberately practise is how the civilisation makes progress.

Scheme 1 the experience of the senior

Some expertises cannot be learned from the book. The only way to know them is to consult the sophisticated senior. The senior’s experience is the most valuable.

When Mr Luo was a TV journalist conducting interview, sometimes the interviewee is stammered and so nervous that he can not say a word ,even if he is given a big poster in front of him to read.  The senior of Mr Luo told him a trick, in case the interviewee cannot express himself clearly, you can summarise for him if you understand his meaning. For example, Mr Wang do you mean this? After you summarising the main points for him, more than likely, he would agree and say yes yes yes.  It is the time for him to repeat. Then he should be able to speak out fluently and no longer be nervous.

When Mr luo was working as a reporter, his senior taught him a lot of experience and manoeuvre. e.g. How to invite, how to pre-interview, how to edit after interview,  how to deal with a lot of issues. Due to the length of working experience of the senior, he must have accumulated a lot of  experience and manoeuvres to solve the problems. By studying those manoeuvres, we can deal with the  critical situations in a better way when it appears. Therefore it would reduce the trial and error cost and increase the economic benefit significantly.

Scheme 2 concept and disassembling

The human’s civilisation is built on concept. for example, in physics, the most important discovery is entropy in 20 century. Just like in economics,the transaction cost is the most important discovery recently. Transaction cost has very comprehensive meaning and content. Entropy, if you understand its connotation and denotation,you can understand the whole knowledge system evolved from it. Therefore, one should learn how to use these concept in the process of accumulating knowledge and know them precisely. It is called to learn the scheme.

The true practice is not a blind practice which is not smart. The true practice is to break down the big the knowledge block into small modules, make them as small knowledge can as possible,and  practise them individually. It is so called disassembling. For example, in the music field, to become a guitar player, you need to return to the basic trivial and monopoly fingering exercises. To become a pianist, you need to always return to the basic fingering exercises, e.g. Hanong fingering exercises. to become a violinist,  a melody need to be broken into very tiny parts, and practise the small part individually. Another example, in rugby  practice, only 1% time is spent in real match. At ordinary times, the training is concentrated on speed and particular formation. With regard to particular player, the different muscle  are trained separately.

The disassembling technique could be used in all industries. The majority of lawyers’ training time is spent in reading a lot of case decision. The go player’s basic training is not to contest with another player on internet but to remember modules and a lot of manuals. The great master’s way of success is to learn the formula of expert, just like breaking the building into bricks and acquire understanding from the bricks. It is the most effective way to train the particular precisely. Obviously, the only formula itself would not be much useful,  the key is to repeat again and again.  The targeted and repetitive practice is the essence of deliberate practice.

Leave the comfortable zone and keep on doing something you cannot

A lot of people love playing chess. However they are always lingering at the level of beginner. It is because they care comfortable feeling more than getting the result from deliberate training. So as in the game, if your purpose is only to feel great, you are not actually playing the game. You are played by the game. The essence of studying is to walk out the comfortable zone.

The successful in the game achieving something always tries the tasks he cannot do. Let us take map in computer game for example, the successful person will endeavoured to find out all the details in the map. Some figures in the game are confidential, however the successful players are willing to do a lot of research and test in order to find them out. Those people can become experts through the deliberate exercise.

There is a famous golf player in America called Tiger Woods, the famous Mr Tiger.  He lives in a indiscreet personal live, however he is god in the golf ground. It is said that lots of professional players admire his ability to stop in the middle of swinging if something unexpected happened on the ground, e.g. if someone shouting or roaming around makes him believe he cannot perform well, he can just stop half way. He is able to adjust himself and restart again.

It is a piece of cake for amateur like me, I think I can stop halfway and redo it too. However it is a big deal for a professional player. Because the professional swinging is driven by muscle memory. It is a subconscious action. It may look dexterous, but it is out of control of the brain. The brain is actually no longer in charge of it. If something happened on the ground, it was certain that you would not perform well as a matter of fact. However Tiger woods are different, he will not let himself into the comfortable zone and he always challenge himself with difficult situation in daily training. He will not allow any of his body movement uncontrolled.

Keep on challenge uncomfortable zone, keep on doing something unlearned, learn scheme and deliberate training and keep on training in the right way repetitively. You will become an expert.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

应对澳洲父母移民2018年4月经济担保AOS要求提高的解决方案

申请豁免3001 到底有多难

移民局为了防止黑民在境内利用配偶签证钻移民局的空子,获得签证。规定如果申黑民已经超过28天,就需要有compelling reason 来申请配偶签证。但是这个规定也误伤了一些合法的过桥签证持有人。

法院的看法是,申请人必须确有特殊情况能打动移民官豁免3001 要求。

虽然在1996 年法律刚刚颁布的时候给出的解释是 长期的关系可以考虑3001的豁免。

Explanatory Statement for the Migration Regulations (Amendment) 1996 No 75 states that a genuine long-standing relationship may justify waiver because of the hardship which could otherwise result. It also provides that: “The introduction of a waiver provision recognises the hardship that can result if an unlawful non-citizen wishing to remain in Australia on spouse grounds is obliged to leave Australia and apply from overseas.” This emphasises the primary role of hardship in the consideration of “compelling reasons”.

移民界也是这样运作了好多年,后来发展到长期关系还不行,必须有小孩。现在已经发展到,只要你是黑民就不给豁免。移民局最新的PAM规定是

“not intended to facilitate persons who can leave Australia and apply for a partner visa offshore”. Rather, it is aimed at persons who, due to involuntary circumstances beyond their control like illness or incapacity, became unlawful non-citizens and were prevented from regularising their immigration status.

也就是说除非是由于不可抗力,你成了黑民就不能得到豁免。虽然法院对这个问题有不同看法, 法院认为根本就没有这种黑民就不能得到豁免的说法。 比如 Crennan J in Paduano v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs [2005] FCA 211143 FCR 204 at [37], stating “there is nothing in the express wording, or the context, which indicates that ‘compelling reasons for the absence’ must be confined to reasons incorporating an involuntary element, involving circumstances beyond a person’s control”.

但是归根到底,这个3001 还是属于签证官或者AAT的自由裁量范围。比如 These “compelling reasons” must be sufficiently powerful to lead the relevant decision-maker to make a positive finding in favour of waiving the required criteria: Babicci v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs [2005] FCAFC 77141 FCR 285, [24] (Tamberlin, Conti and Jacobson JJ).

所以如果你是黑民,如果不是由于不可抗力变成黑民,基本上是无法在移民局取得3001的豁免。如果去AAT 上庭,如果你有长期关系 目前来看你的胜率是25%,或者有小孩,你的胜率目前来看是50%。

职业改变性格

小时候我是一个特别喜欢给别人建议的人。那时自我感觉特别良好,天上的我知道一半,地上的我全知道。干了10年移民留学行业,我的话是越来越少了。从原来追着别人给建议,到别人问我才给建议,到别人问我我也是只说行或不行的判断,现在就算问我,签约前我也不给任何确切的意见。

最近有一对客户咨询485签证,485签证目前我已经至少做了几百个了吧,也就没有认为有什么难度,大包大揽下来。拿到客户材料一看才发现出乎意料的复杂。

客户现在主副申请都在中国,副申请有一次学生签证拒签现在在AAT上诉,是持有过桥签证B,主申请人刚刚毕业。

问题1 客户能不能在中国递交485? 答案是不能,485的主申请人必须在澳洲境内递交。

问题2 客户能不能 主申请人回来,附申请人在中国一起递交做一个combined application?

问题3 如果能做combined application , 附申请人入境后能不能激活Bridging visa A?

问题4 如果不能激活BVA 附申请人马上AAT 上诉的过桥签证到期了又要怎么留下来?

问题5  做combined application, 附申请人一定要境内下签。但是如果拿不到过桥签证就要让附申请人离境再申请旅游签证入境下签,申请旅游签证是否方便?万一拿不到怎么办?

问题6 如果让主申请回来递交,附申请在国内递交,主申请递交签证后,副申请人是否能立刻递交。

答案是不行,副申请人必须等主申请人下签后才能递交485 作为主申请人的家庭成员加入。

仔细考虑了以上6个问题,权衡了利弊,决定建议主申请人先回澳洲,副申请人等主申请拿到485签证以后再递交485签证。 每个客户的情况都有可能需要考虑很多因素,所以大部分移民律师的咨询都是要收费的,收费过后才给出咨询意见。

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